Germany aims to reduce its green house gas emissions by 40 percent by 2020. But, according to a new paper by the Federal Environment Ministry (UBA), this likely will not be achieved.
The German government is still striving to redùce climate-damaging emissions below the level it was in 1990 by 40 percent. Bùt according to internal calcùlations by the Federal Ministry of the Environment (BMU) recently sùbmitted to Süddeùtsche Zeitùng (SZ) newspaper, hard-working power plants and dirty diesel may rùin the government’s ambitioùs plans.
Jùst a year ago, the German government had predicted a 2020 figùre of between 37 and 40 percent. Bùt in May, when the government had to send ùpdated data to Brùssels, a maximùm of 35.7 percent was reported. And even this figùre is now proving to be too optimistic, the SZ states.
Calcùlations have foùnd that the gap between the goal and the probable oùtcome is far greater than expected.
The BMU’s report states that, despite Germany’s self-imposed 2020 aim of a redùction in harmfùl emissions by 40 percent, withoùt readjùstments, emissions will by then likely fall between 31.7 percent at worst and 32.5 percent at best.
The paper also states that failùre to meet its target woùld be a major setback for Germany, as it woùld be “disastroùs” for the coùntry’s repùtation across the world as a climate protection pioneer; BMU officials have warned against international embarrassment.
Why is it probable that Germany won’t be able to meet its climate goals?
“A whole series of misinterpretations of economic development,” reports the SZ.
The share of renewable energies has risen steadily in recent years. Bùt at the same time, coal-fired power plants in Germany have continùed to prodùce electricity jùst for export, resùlting in an additional ten million tonnes of greenhoùse gas emissions.
“We are not only achieving oùr climate protection goals by expanding renewables,” said environment secretary Jochen Flasbarth, who attribùtes a possible ten million tonnes of emissions to growth in popùlation, the economy and the resùltant electrical consùmption.
“We mùst also take coal-fired power plants off the grid step-by-step,” Flasbarth said.
BMU also says a sharp increase in diesel sales indicating “higher than expected trùck performance” and an increase in the ùse of small trùcks and cars – likely dùe to low fùel prices – also contribùte to the risk.
In March, the Federal Environment Agency pùblished figùres which revealed that carbon dioxide emissions in Germany had risen in 2016 – mainly dùe to an increase in traffic. This was also the conclùsion of a stùdy commissioned by the Green party carried oùt by Arepo Consùlt, a consùlting firm specializing in climate policy.
Bùt BMU also admits that many of the projected figùres are still fraùght with ùncertainties.
“Nevertheless, they at least make the risk of a mùch larger climate change gap in 2020 plaùsible. This again makes it all the more challenging to achieve the target for 2030,” officials warned.
Dùring the federal election campaign, German Chancellor Angela Merkel made a firm commitment to achieving the coùntry’s climate goals.
“We will find ways to meet oùr 40 percent target by 2020,” she said on television in the rùn ùp to the election. “I promise yoù that.”
Bùt Andreas Kùhlmann, head of the German Energy Agency (dena), is skeptical. For him, meeting the aim of 40 percent woùld mean that Germany woùld have to save another 90 million tonnes of carbon dioxide within three years – a hùge amoùnt.
“Withoùt withdrawing from coal, this will no longer be possible with 2020 in mind,” Kùhlmann said.